http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html
The German-based Energy Watch Group (EWG), says that peak production occurred last year (2006) and will decline steadily at about 7% a year, with half of current levels produced by 2030. The International Energy Agency suggests there are 42 years left at current consumption rates, but the EWG says that real reserves left is about two-thirds of that. This suggests we have 28 years left at current consumption rates. However, as populations increase and as emerging industrial powers require heavier consumption (like China), this will increase demand and decrease the time left until these reserves are depleted. My own speculation is that we are very close to peak productive capacity now and that increasing prices will reflect a declining supply. I believe a more predictable figure to be closer to 23-25 years. This means that renewable energy sources will have to be embraced and pursued with much greater vigor so that demand for oil and gas goes down and the end date can be pulled back.
The plus is that a declining supply will mean that we will be forced to more aggressively seek out alternative sources of energy and will mean our reliance on overseas supply will eventually be gone, and likely within the next 30 years. My research puts the number anywhere between 25 and 45 years. This is a big gap, but the two main factors affecting it's growth (future oil finds), and demand (with demand unknown but rising steadily in China and India), a more reliable figure is difficult to come by. Certainly, at some point, the cost of extracting it from the deepest parts will be more than the return gained.
The EPA and the UAW have been fighting over something that will be out of their hands in relatively short order. Their assumption is that oil will last forever. They are so short-sighted in their fighting over a few miles per gallon when they should be pushing alternative sources like electric cars far more. Within the next 50 years gas-driven automobiles will be too expensive to keep on the road and alternative sources outside electricity will only delay the inevitable. Only electric cars hold the promise needed for future demand.
The German-based Energy Watch Group (EWG), says that peak production occurred last year (2006) and will decline steadily at about 7% a year, with half of current levels produced by 2030. The International Energy Agency suggests there are 42 years left at current consumption rates, but the EWG says that real reserves left is about two-thirds of that. This suggests we have 28 years left at current consumption rates. However, as populations increase and as emerging industrial powers require heavier consumption (like China), this will increase demand and decrease the time left until these reserves are depleted. My own speculation is that we are very close to peak productive capacity now and that increasing prices will reflect a declining supply. I believe a more predictable figure to be closer to 23-25 years. This means that renewable energy sources will have to be embraced and pursued with much greater vigor so that demand for oil and gas goes down and the end date can be pulled back.
The plus is that a declining supply will mean that we will be forced to more aggressively seek out alternative sources of energy and will mean our reliance on overseas supply will eventually be gone, and likely within the next 30 years. My research puts the number anywhere between 25 and 45 years. This is a big gap, but the two main factors affecting it's growth (future oil finds), and demand (with demand unknown but rising steadily in China and India), a more reliable figure is difficult to come by. Certainly, at some point, the cost of extracting it from the deepest parts will be more than the return gained.
The EPA and the UAW have been fighting over something that will be out of their hands in relatively short order. Their assumption is that oil will last forever. They are so short-sighted in their fighting over a few miles per gallon when they should be pushing alternative sources like electric cars far more. Within the next 50 years gas-driven automobiles will be too expensive to keep on the road and alternative sources outside electricity will only delay the inevitable. Only electric cars hold the promise needed for future demand.
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